Meteorological Modeling


Meteorological modeling simulates meteorological conditions, such as wind, temperature and vertical mixing. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system that serves both forecasting and atmospheric research needs. WRF merges existing mesoscale meteorological models into a comprehensive mesoscale meteorological modeling capability. It features multiple dynamical cores, a 3-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system, and a software architecture allowing for computational parallelism and system extensibility. WRF can be applied to a broad range of applications across scales ranging from meters to thousands of kilometers.

RENCI is working with scientists, researchers and forecasters to help better predict high impact weather and to help decision makers determine how to respond to that weather. Using high-resolution modeling, RENCI is working to improve the ability to predict precipitation that can lead to floods, tropical cyclones, and winter weather.

RENCI uses the WRF model in both deterministic and probabilistic ways, running a single WRF forecast at 1km resolution for North Carolina, a single WRF forecast at 3km resolution for tropical cyclones, and an ensemble of WRF forecasts at 3km resolution.  RENCI combines its own in-house WRF ensemble with forecasts from several National Weather Service forecast offices, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the National Severe Storms Laboratory, and the Department of Energy, to form a 4km resolution ensemble of approximately 30 members.  This ensemble is applied to mid-Atlantic precipitation prediction.  RENCI is also working to couple WRF model forecasts with air-quality models and hydrology models.


  • NOAA/National Weather Service (CSTAR program)
  • State of North Carolina

Project Team

  • Brian Etherton, project leader
  • Vijay Dantuluri
  • Ken Galluppi
  • Oleg Kapeljushnik
  • Howard Lander
  • Michael Stealey


  • Gary Lackmann, Matthew Parker, Anantha Aiyyer, Ruoying He, Walter Robinson, Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, NC State University
  • Doug Miller, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Department of Meteorology, UNC Asheville
  • Aaron Sims, State Climate Office of North Carolina
  • National Weather Service Offices: Raleigh, NC, Wilmington, NC, Morehead City, NC, Greenville-Spartanburg SC, Columbia, SC, Blacksburg, VA, Sterling, VA, and Wakefield, VA.
  • Savannah River National Laboratory, Department of Energy
  • NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction: Environmental Modeling Center, Tropical Prediction Center
  • NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory and Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory